This year’s Paris Air Show was the venue for Airbus and Boeing to release their much-awaited annual predictions for the next twenty years, in the shape of their Global Market Forecast and Commercial Market Outlook reports. We delve deep into the data to pull out the trends and drivers that will shape the next two decades of aviation.
Overall predictions for the number of aircraft required in the 2023-2042 timescale from the two primary airframers land within 200 of each other at 42,595 from Boeing and 40,850 from Airbus, roughly split at an 80:20 ratio between narrowbody and widebody aircraft.
Compared with last year’s 20-year forecast of 41,170 aircraft from Boeing and 39,460 aircraft from Airbus, the differences largely result from annual growth forecasting: inherently, the year 2042 will see more flights and thus need more aircraft than the year 2022.
Big picture: aviation has returned to its longterm growth curve, with pent up demand remaining in China and southeast Asia, and an increased focus on sustainability.
A recovered market opens the window to substantial future growth
Recovery is “progressing broadly as anticipated”, says Boeing’s Darren Hulst, vice president for commercial marketing.
Boeing data show that 2023 sees 97 percent of the passenger flights, 97 percent of the passenger fleet active, 92 percent of the passenger capacity, and 90 percent of the passenger traffic compared with pre-pandemic levels, with airplane retirement also delayed by 1-2 percent.
Most notably, the narrowbody market is back to growth, having exceeded 2019 in all regions, while the widebody market remains at around 85 percent of the 2019 level, which roughly approximates levels of 2015.
The numbers from Airbus’ market analysis complete this picture: Chinese international demand remains at just 41 percent of 2019 available seat kilometres, with domestic demand at 126 percent. International demand in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region is the only other major outlier at 81 percent of previous levels.
The constraints at present are largely found outside demand, with policy harmonisation, labour availability and supply chain stability as the primary issues facing the industry at present.
Boeing does, however, see differences in the shape of that demand, with the changing dynamics within the world of work (and indeed work-life balance and blending) driving more flights on Saturdays and Sundays. The airframer also notes slight growth in the number of airports now offering widebody flights (628, up from 602 in 2018 and 644 in 2013) across a range of flight lengths.
Key drivers: demand, fleet trends and sustainability
Wider trends include the continuing growth of low-cost carriers, greater network flexibility, optimisation of cabins, and the drive towards net zero. Indeed, Boeing notes, the low-cost market is leading the fleet growth in the narrowbody segment in particular.
Boeing also highlighted significant regional variance in structural demand, stating that “two-thirds of projected new airplane deliveries to North American carriers will replace existing fleets. In contrast, markets earlier in their aviation development and with smaller installed fleets have lower replacement needs but higher growth demand. Asia-Pacific markets are forecast to deploy over 60 percent of new airplane deliveries for growth.”
Fleet trends overall include simplification of the fleet portfolio (with Boeing noting that 75 airlines, roughly a third of global carriers, “phased out at least one family from their active fleet 2019 to 2023”), pent-up demand for replacement, headwinds within the regional jet market (with capacity still at less than 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels), and the prospect of disruptive technology at the below-jet capacity level.
On the sustainability front, both airframers see net zero goals as a strong driver. Airbus highlights fleet renewal, the services portfolio, increasing sustainable aviation fuel capability, technology disruption (specifically aerodynamics, airframes, propulsion and energy) and wider initiatives (including CORSIA and carbon removals, offsetting and capture) as core topics. Boeing also spotlights fleet renewal, adding growing sourcing of sustainable aviation fuels, and investment in new technologies and lower carbon ways of flying (notably advanced air mobility and eVTOLs) as priorities.
By the numbers: Boeing
Boeing forecasts 42,595 global deliveries, of which:
- 32,420 single aisle
- 7,440 widebody
- 1,810 regional jets
- 925 freighters
Geographically, demand is split roughly into fifths between North America, China, the rest of Asia-Pacific, Eurasia and then the rest of the world (comprising the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa):
- 9,645 for Eurasia
- 9,250 for North America
- 8,560 for China
- 4,225 for Southeast Asia
- 3,025 for Middle East
- 2,705 for South Asia
- 2,105 for Latin America
- 1,350 for Northeast Asia
- 1,025 for Africa
- 705 for Oceania
The global fleet will double, Boeing says, and very interestingly notes that the cumulative growth in industry productivity and utilisation has a strong effect on future demand. The future fleet would be some 20 percent larger without these productivity improvements, the airframer calculates.
Boeing also highlights a growing $3.8 trillion market in services, split up as:
- 39 percent in parts and distribution
- 30 percent in maintenance, repair, overhaul and modifications
- 26 percent in digital solutions and analytics
- 5 percent in training and pilot services
By the numbers: Airbus
Airbus forecasts 40,850 global deliveries, of which:
- 80 percent typical single aisle: 32,630
- 20 percent typical widebody: 8,220 (including 920 new-build freighters
Regionally, Airbus predicts demand to be split:
- 9,480 for Asia-Pacific (excluding the People’s Republic of China)
- 9,440 for the People’s Republic of China
- 7,970 for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States
- 6,970 for North America
- 3,420 for the Middle East
- 2,390 for Latin America
- 1,180 for Africa
When comparing with the Boeing figures, it’s important to remember that Airbus doesn’t predict within the sub-100-passenger market, and that the regional divisions are different.
By and large, Airbus’ predictions for the 80:20 split between narrowbodies and widebodies is largely consistent regionally within five percent either way, with the exception of the Middle East (53:47) and Latin America (92:8).
Airbus forecasts global freighter demand at 2,510 to the 2042 time horizon, of which 1,020 will be in the single-aisle 10-40t segment, 890 in the midsized widebody 40-80t segment, and 600 in the large widebody 80t-plus segment.
Author: John Walton
Published 04 July 2023
Image: Airbus, A321XLR
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