What are net zero and carbon neutrality, how do they apply to aviation, and what are the current commitments and challenges? We sum it up in the latest of our ab initio primers.
Net zero carbon dioxide emissions, sometimes called carbon neutrality, is at its most basic a situation in which no new such emissions are added to the atmosphere. In practice, the ‘net’ part of net zero means that, after reduction efforts, remaining emissions are absorbed, or ‘offset’ outside of the activity itself.
The balance between the two key tacks of reduction and offsetting is, perhaps understandably, a contentious one.
The idea of some nations continuing to emit at high levels while offloading their emissions to others via carbon credit exporting has understandably raised equity questions.
The transparency and effectiveness of offsetting schemes are very much up for debate, while the CORSIA scheme (from ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organisation) that covers aviation is controversial in what it includes, how it works, when it starts working, and to whom it applies.
Aviation’s commitments aim for 2050
In October 2021, the aviation industry committed to net zero by 2050, in line with the Paris Agreement, in which it was “not directly included”. This commitment is broadly in line with European aviation’s Destination 2050 plan from February, relying on new fuels, new technology, new operations and new infrastructure.
But there are still questions about aviation’s total impact. Industry group ATAG, which organised the commitment, accepts a 2% figure for aviation’s share of CO2 emissions globally.
The UK’s independent statutory advisory Climate Change Committee states [PDF, p5] that “aviation emissions accounted for 7% of UK GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions in 2018”, but neither figure includes non-CO2 impacts, such as other gases, water vapour, aerosols, contrails, and cirrus cloud induction, all of which cause warming.
Most credible sources suggest aviation’s climate impact is between 2–10% of the global total, if non-CO2 impacts are included. There is an inherent political tension on which number to use, of course. If one were to take a figure towards the lower end, it would look worse for the industry’s efforts to date, and there might be less impetus to change — but also less progress to make.
Regardless, the November 2021 aviation tracking report from the International Energy Agency, which sits within the OECD’s framework, judges aviation as “not on track” to meet goals, highlighting solutions and challenges around fuels, technology improvements, demand side adjustments and new kinds of aircraft propulsion.
Timing itself is contentious: most net-zero commitments, both within and outside aviation, look to a 2050 deadline to achieve carbon neutrality, but many of the commitments are back-loaded, in other words beyond 2030 or 2040. This is certainly the case with most of aviation’s commitments.
This ‘burn now, pay later’ approach is problematic, not just for generational inequity, but also because the faster emissions can be reduced in the short term, the more years of lower emissions there are up to the 2050 goal.
COP26 and the new coalition: eyes on ICAO
The COP26 Declaration creating the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition was signed by 23 nationstates, including the US, UK and most of the major EU countries, with eight goals, mostly to be implemented via ICAO. (Shipping got its own COP26 Clydebank Declaration, to be implemented by the International Maritime Organisation.)
The new coalition and its aims were criticised by environmental groups, including the influential European NGO Transport & Environment, which called them “too weak to clean up flying”.
This Declaration includes language around including aviation in 1.5°C by 2050 targets, but with a fair amount of woolly language. It promotes sustainable aviation fuels and new low/zero carbon technologies, but a good third of it is taken up by emissions offsetting programme CORSIA and recommending meetings and action plans in advance of the 41st ICAO Assembly at the end of September 2022.
All eyes are now on ICAO, which already maintains a list of aviation net zero initiatives and commitments from a variety of entities, ranging from standards body CAE, airlines, airports and manufacturers, all the way to the country of Norway and the continent of Europe.
The 41st triennial ICAO Assembly in September will in many ways be the make or break for aviation’s net zero promises: real progress beyond basic aspirational statements will need to be made if the rest of the world is to be persuaded that aviation is playing its part.
Author: John Walton
Published 26th May 2022
Photo by Joachim Süß on Unsplash
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