We’re on the tarmac at the Farnborough Airshow as the industry arrives for the first of the big summer airshows since the COVID-19 pandemic.
With UK-record temperatures for Monday and Tuesday approaching — or possibly exceeding — 40° Celsius or 104° Fahrenheit in the shade, the early news and the industry scuttlebutt forecasts a hot show in more ways than one.
Follow us live all week as we bring you all the latest news at the show on Twitter, and here every night on Yocova.com.
Good morning from team @yocova_ at the @FIAFarnborough International Airshow!
We’re looking down the line… and what’s that we see taking off down there? 🛫
Catch us all week here at #FIA2022 and at https://t.co/fJloOXNEdo! pic.twitter.com/8j0hUTXrTs
— Yocova (@yocova_) July 17, 2022
The main topics of discussion so far have been the prospect of orders for Boeing and Airbus — in the context of the former’s delays and safety regulatory issues, and in the latter’s “what do we do next” question.
Boeing’s ongoing delivery and certification issues
The biggest thing at the show this year, physically speaking, is the Boeing 777-9, the largest member of the 777X family. Its signature folding wingtips are instantly recognisable, and from some angles look oddly bigger than the tail of the 737 MAX 10 beside it.
Neither aircraft program is out of the clouds, however. The 777X was further delayed this April until 2025 — some six years after its initial plan — and airlines are getting somewhat fractious. The 737 MAX 10, meanwhile, is mired in an awkward certification situation, with Boeing facing down a year-end deadline to either complete certification of the MAX 10 or to have to install safety systems that are required on new aircraft.
Boeing is widely expected to announce a deal with Delta Air Lines for 100 of the MAX 10 aircraft at the show.
Meanwhile, the 787 program is still stalled with deliveries prohibited by the FAA, although at a briefing in London today chief executive Stan Deal made positive noises about the regulatory situation for Boeing’s smaller widebody, referring to the “ninth inning” (in baseball, out of ten). Boeing is not showing a 787 at the show, although one from Qatar Airways is now parked next to a 777-300ER at the far west end of the show that was, in previous years, home to large Russian and Russian-operated cargo aircraft. Those are not at Farnborough this year following Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine.
Qatar Airways this year has brought two Boeings to #FIA2022 — a 787 that we presume has its new business class mini-suites on board — and a 777 in the World Cup livery.
They’re all the way down in the far west end parking area, where the big Russian cargo jets used to be. pic.twitter.com/2HDyscCDaz
— Yocova (@yocova_) July 17, 2022
Qatar Airways, which has previously split its Farnborough/Le Bourget airshow presence between Boeing and Airbus, has not brought any of the latter, presumably owing to the ongoing litigation between the two companies over the A350 and A321neo deals.
Boeing unveiled its latest Global Market Forecast at the show. Highlights of the 41,000-aircraft order include an 80% growth in the cargo market, a Russia-shaped gap of approximately 1500 aircraft, strong growth in China and new growth in South Asia, particularly India. We’ll be crunching the numbers further this week.
Airbus’ nice-to-have three-stretch conundrum
Airbus enters the Farnborough Airshow in pole airframer position, with two Airbus A350 — one ITA, one house colours — on the stand, together with an A220-300 from airBaltic. As of Sunday evening, we haven’t yet spotted an A320neo family member, although it would make sense if the airframer were to bring down its A321XLR extra-long-range version.
The big question for Airbus is stretches. To compete with the 777X in size, Airbus could do with a longer A350 than the A350-1000, which we might call the A350-2000 for ease. But the A350 is selling well, so it will be interesting to see the extent to which Airbus tries to hold Boeing’s feet to the proverbial fire in the widebody competition as well as the narrowbody one, where the advantage is currently Airbus’.
The A321neo, too, could do with one final stretch to its airframe — let’s call it the A322 — that would likely be a slightly more capacious yet slightly less ranged version of the narrowbody. Yet if the A350 is selling well, the A320neo (and particularly the A321neo) is the airline must-have, with production slots like gold-dust for the next few years, so adding demand for the narrowbody lines is complicated. That will be especially true given the 292-aircraft deal with Chinese airlines Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and Shenzhen Airlines at the beginning of July.
Now arriving at @FIAFarnborough: an @airBaltic @Airbus #A220-300!
Note: helicopter not included. #FIA2022 pic.twitter.com/LCTWfrNUMr
— Yocova (@yocova_) July 17, 2022
Airbus’ option to help with that supply crunch could come in the form of the A220, formerly the Bombardier C Series. The A220 currently maxes out at just under 150, with the airBaltic A220-300 on display seating 145. Discussions of a second stretch was around even when the stretch was the C Series CS500, and has continued as the notional A220-500. A strong package here — perhaps a slight further stretch to allow a 150-seater two-class aircraft, and then perhaps a major ten-row stretch to allow a 200-seater one-class aircraft — together with keen pricing might persuade some airlines to take up more of the smaller airliner.
Real sustainability progress is needed
As ultra-hot weather predictions from a few years ago, intended to demonstrate the worst-case scenario for 2050, come true nearly thirty years before expected, the impetus for the aviation industry to take real and concrete action on sustainability has never been stronger.
There is something of a sense that many promises have been made, but that progress on these promises is less visible, as is demonstrating the kind of plans that show how the industry will achieve its milestones.
In a somewhat tumultuous week here in the UK, where the UK’s air navigation service provider NATS announced the certification of its net zero plans, while some of the candidates to be the next leader of the governing Conservative party — and thus the next Prime Minister — have seemed luke-warm at best on net zero, aviation finds itself in an unusual position.
And additionally…
The Loar Group is acquiring Schroth Safety Products, a major manufacturer of airliner seatbelts and airbags.
Embraer subsidiary EVE is showing off its first cabins mockup for its advanced air mobility vehicle. The Brazilian airframer also brought its E2 family aircraft to the show.
Fullscreen and volume up: it’s the @embraer E190-E2 Tech Shark taking off from @FIAFarnborough! #FIA2022 pic.twitter.com/TqLJOQRIU4
— Yocova (@yocova_) July 17, 2022
Elsewhere online, Jon Ostrower’s The Air Current scoop breaking the news of the Delta 737 MAX 10 deal earlier in the month is one to review as we wait for announcements this week.
And if you’re looking for a great listen on your Farnborough commute — or anywhere else — the Politico EU Confidential podcast this week is focussed on transportation, with thought-provoking perspectives that sum up how key EU political media view
Author: John Walton
Published: 17th July 2022
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